Some have taken issue with our choice to describe EPA’s new regulation for model year 2027-2032 passenger vehicles as a “ban on most new gas cars,” and have accused us of exaggerating the administration’s policies. We’d like to explain, once again, why we talk about the policy this way.
Phasing out gas cars is the whole point.
EPA’s passenger vehicle regulation—which by 2032 will impose a fleetwide average tailpipe GHG emissions standard of 85 grams/mile—functionally discourages the production of new gas-powered cars.
How? Not even one of today’s gas or traditional hybrid vehicle can meet this fleetwide standard on its own. This means, automakers will be compelled to make and sell more electric vehicles instead of gas-powered cars to comply with the rule.
In fact, EPA projects that new gas cars will only account for 29% (or less) of total new vehicle sales by 2032, down from nearly 85% of sales last year (see table below).
A regulation that forces a wholesale turnover of the auto market from gas-powered cars to EVs in eight short years can fairly and accurately be described as a “ban on most new gas cars.”
EPA’s projections for how automakers will comply with its tailpipe emissions rule. By 2032, the agency sees gas car sales being limited to 29% or less of total new car sales. Source: EPA.
But wait…There’s more!
EPA’s regulation doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The Department of Transportation also finalized new fuel economy standards that provide a backstop to the EPA rule, further forcing the electrification of the fleet.
And, EPA is set to review and likely approve California’s outright ban on sales of new gas, diesel and traditional hybrid cars by 2035. California’s ban, which would be adopted by roughly a dozen other states, would cover close to 40% of the U.S. car market, taking away the ability to purchase new gas cars in most of those states.
The President and Vice President said they would push for 100% EVs.
These policies are paying off campaign promises, circa 2020, from President Biden and Vice President Harris who both committed to 100% electric vehicle sales.
- President Biden: “we must go further, faster and more aggressively than ever before, by: … preserving and implementing the existing Clean Air Act, and developing rigorous new fuel economy standards aimed at ensuring 100% of new sales for light- and medium-duty vehicles will be electrified...”
- Vice President Harris: “…[w]e will ensure that 50 percent of all new passenger vehicles sold are zero-emission by 2030, and 100 percent are zero-emission by 2035.”
Through EPA’s passenger vehicle regulations and other policies, the Biden-Harris administration is moving full speed ahead with their vision for an all-EV fleet, despite growing evidence of lagging consumer demand.
Still not convinced? Check out these resources:
- The big 3 government policies designed to limit access to gas cars
- What to Know About EPA's Passenger Vehicle GHG Standards
- What they’re saying: Call EPA’s GHG proposal what it is… a de facto ban on ICE vehicles
- Chet Thompson: When regulators make it impossible to find or afford the product you want, it’s a ban
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