We’ve shared why a diesel export ban could mean less U.S. fuel production and higher prices. Now, a growing chorus of experts, analysts and administration officials is sounding the same warning specifically for gasoline: an export ban could push prices at the pump higher.
“‘All the things equal, lower diesel prices would incentivize refiners to reduce their production,’ Goldman’s Daan Struyven said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview. ‘And because gasoline and diesel are usually produced together as a bundle with some flexibility, it would likely reduce the availability of gasoline.’”
— Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg, 9/23/26
"The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn't work,’ Wright said at an event hosted by the Economist in New York. ‘If you can't export the diesel that comes out of our refineries, you run out of places to store it, and you have to reduce U.S. refining, which would put upward pressure on gasoline prices and jet fuel prices,’ Wright said.”
— Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Reuters, 9/23/26
“Gasoline prices could rise toward record levels if an export ban is implemented, said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a social media post.”
— Patrick De Hann, CNBC, 9/23/26
“There is concern in the oil industry that Europe could ban gasoline exports to the U.S., the analyst said. This would be particularly problematic for the more import-dependent U.S. Northeast, he said.”
— Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, CNBC, 9/23/26
“An export ban would result in ‘more expensive gasoline right away,’ the Energy secretary said last week. U.S. refineries would cut production, including gasoline, as storage tanks are filled, said Wright, an industry insider who previously served as CEO of the oilfield services firm Liberty Energy.”
— Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, CNBC, 9/23/26
“Refiners have some scope to switch their production from maximizing diesel to maximizing gasoline but it is likely slower crude processing would cut the supply of gasoline, which could perversely increase the cost of fuel for motorists.”
— John Kemp, Newsletter, 9/24/26
“Gasoline is often produced alongside diesel, so you could end up with higher gasoline prices, which is the last thing you’d want to have happen ahead of the midterms.”
— Robin J. Brooks, IIF and Goldman Sachs, Robin J. Brooks Substack, 9/24/26
“A diesel export ban would raise prices. U.S. refiners currently produce about 5.3 million barrels of distillate a day against domestic demand of roughly 3.6 million. If exports are banned, refiners can’t just stockpile the surplus indefinitely. Instead, refiners would simply cut production. This would tighten supply, thus raising prices. Because gasoline and diesel are co-produced at the same refineries, cutting diesel output cuts gasoline output too. In this way, a policy sold as ‘relief’ would instead squeeze Americans more at the gas pump.”
— Isabelle Marchese, Americans for Tax Reform, 9/22/26
The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) is the leading trade association representing the makers of the fuels that keep us moving, the petrochemicals that are the essential building blocks for modern life, and the midstream companies that get our feedstocks and products where they need to go. We make the products that make life better, safer and more sustainable — we make progress.
